Pakistan Damages From Riots Linked To Bhutto Death Top $1 Billion-AFP
KARACHI (AFP)–Every day laborer Abdul Karim lines up in this southern city, Pakistan’s economic hub, looking for work, one of thousands dealing with the economic aftermath of Benazir Bhutto’s murder.
Deadly riots triggered by the assassination of the opposition leader caused more than a billion dollars in damage and left hundreds of shops, banks and businesses smoldering in ruin.
The shock of the murder hundreds of kilometers away in Rawalpindi was felt most here in the capital of the southern Sindh province, Bhutto’s political heartland.
“I couldn’t earn anything and passed the week with little food for my two children,” said the tall 31-year-old, dressed in a dark brown shalwar kameez and yellow sweater, standing among dozens facing the same problem.
Textile trader Abdul Wahab arrived here 10 years ago, confident that his prospects were better than in his native, conflict-torn home of Sri Lanka.
The 48-year-old told AFP he “loves Pakistan,” but a few hours after Bhutto’s death his life’s work went up in flames.
“The rioters burnt my factory with everything inside, including trucks loaded with material ready for export,” said Wahab, whose small business sold cotton towels to the U.S. and Canada as well as his homeland.
“Fortunately, I had closed an hour before, and no life was lost,” he said, though his 30 employees now have no work until Wahab can piece his business back together.
The violence, which claimed at least 58 lives and injured many more across the country, has since simmered down.
But the central bank warned the unrest had hit the economy so hard that it mightn’t reach its 7.2% growth target for the year to June 2008.
Eight years of military rule under President Pervez Musharraf have seen undoubted economic progress, but political instability, a state of emergency and Bhutto’s assassination have rocked business confidence in recent months.
“The situation has affected the immediate shipment of textiles for export, which has visibly shaken the confidence of foreign buyers,” said Khizar Dada, chairman of the Pakistan Cotton Ginners Association.
“We suffered the same problem when Ms. Bhutto was attacked on Oct. 18 (when she was targeted during her homecoming parade from exile), and the current situation has compounded our problems. We are receiving reports from across the province which showed textiles suffered a huge blow.”
The instability ahead of newly scheduled Feb. 18 elections has upset everyone, from big businesses to small traders.
Mohammad Hashim, owner of a small bakery in Karachi, said he couldn’t open for five days after Bhutto’s killing, because of violence and fear in the city.
“Let alone business, we the shopkeepers had to stay for many nights patrolling outside our shops to try and save them from being burned and looted,” he said.
The Karachi Chamber of Commerce and Industry estimates losses in Karachi and Sindh at about PKR80 billion ($1.3 billion).
“We have witnessed violence of the worst kind in the past,” said former KCCI chairman Majyd Aziz, referring to the southern port city’s reputation for sectarian killings.
“But it was the first time that rioters attacked industry,” SAID Aziz, who has spent the past week assessing the damage.
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
01-08-082054ET
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Posted in Economic at 9:05 pm by
I listened in to part of Senator John McCain’s Blogger Call this morning, briefly taking on the role of the amateur reporter with the personal goal of searching for a reason to be content with the possibility that McCain could be the Republican nominee this year.
I intended to ask a question, actually, but he effectively answered me before I got a chance to ask. In discussing issues related to Michigan (as he was coming to us from Grand Rapids, making a run through the state before going next to South Carolina), he brought up an agreement the UAW recently made to cover long-term medical costs for its members. This is relevant because he said that in Washington, he intends to work with Democrats in the way the UAW and auto workers worked to solve that problem.
That’s a deep answer, and is worth unpacking.
Read On…
As a long time opponent of the Senator, my first inclination is to take that statement as proof of everything I’ve disliked in his record as Senator. The conventional wisdom being that the UAW always gets what it wants, and the auto makers cave even when it costs them their ability to compete in the market.
I think there’s more to it than that, though. A Republican President and a Democratic Congress in a sense have a relationship much like that of GM, Ford, and the UAW. Both sides have goals, those goals often conflict, and their relationship is reasonably modeled by the classic Prisoner’s Dilemma of game theory, where cooperation benefits everyone more than antagonism, but if one side cooperates and the other antagonizes, the defector wins big, leading to a situation where everyone defects and is worse off.
UAW has exploited this well. Because it deals with more than one company, it negotiates with them all, and as soon as one is convinced to cooperate, it exploits that and forces the result onto the other employers. It has the advantage of unity, so it tends to win.
So in this sense, it is President McCain who would play the role of the UAW to the Senate’s GM and the House’s Ford. He being the sole voice of the executive branch can simultaneously negotiate and compromise with the Senate and the House, take the best of the two deals, and press the other house to accept the better deal! He’ll still be compromising, and following the model that has served him well in getting his way in the Senate, but basic game theory will carry the day for him in a way that it can’t for the divided team.
This analysis actually causes me to reconsider whether a McCain Presidency would split the party as much as I’ve long believed it would. He still has the problem of illegal immigration, and he addressed that in his call by emphasizing his endorsement by Governor Tom Ridge as being a man who is “committed to securing the borders.” But we can survive a division on that issue, as proven by the fact that we already are split on that issue by President Bush, so I now believe that President McCain would not split us the way Senator McCain has, and so I no longer oppose his nomination.
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Posted in Economic at 8:15 pm by
Comparing the odds of winning from 24 hours ago to now, we can see how NH affected the chance of each candidate to win the nomination. Overall, there is not much movement. This is mainly due to the fact that the markets had McCain winning at an 85% chance before the election so they had already adjusted to that outcome. As can be seen, the race is wide open and an of the candidates could jump with a major win in MI, SC, or FL.
McCain 38% (36%) (+2): Johnny Mac slowly rose to being the most likely winner before NH and got a bump after IA because markets began to expect his win last night. Actually getting the win kept him out front but didn’t give him a lot of new momentum. He’s on to MI to try to rack up a second win before the big 2/5 national primary.
Rudy 27% (27%) (0): Rudy’s late surge strategy is still looking plausible. But his bad showing behind Huck in a rather secular state where he campaigned some didn’t help. I’m guessing his sagging national numbers are canceling out the bump he would get from the fracture of the early primaries for other candidates. But markets are far from discounting the chance that his FL + 2/5 strategy will work.
Huck 15% (17%) (+2): A small bump after besting Rudy in a secular state. Nonetheless, more than two thirds of his support still came from evangelicals (who made up 22% of the R electorate in NH). His national numbers and rising competitiveness outside the South (see MI) is bringing up his odds, but until he can show the ability to appeal to non-evangelicals his odds won’t jump. MI could be his chance to prove his appeal.
Romney 11% (12%) (+1): The markets had already figured in a loss in NH. He remains a viable candidate but an unlikely one. A win in MI would jump his odds but if he strikes out in MI, SC, and FL, his odds will fall. He knows he has to chalk up a win in a contested primary or his small delegate lead will be swamped on 2/5 when 1000+ delegates are chosen.
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07.04.08
Posted in Economic at 9:46 pm by
Michigan is not usually this early in the process. They snuck in and made themselves relevant. And by holding a primary instead of a caucus, they have a contested race. Since things will change throughout the week, here is the starting line of the MI race.
Polls:
There have been no new public polls since Christmas. Thus these numbers are probably not up to date at all. They precede IA and NH as well as the McCain surge and the slight Huckabust. Nevertheless here is the :
Romney 19.8
Huck 18.8
McCain 13.0
Rudy 12.5
The endorsement race is heavily in Romney’s favor with 40 of the state elected officials endorsing Romney and 10 endorsing McCain.
In addition, Romney grew up in MI and his father was Governor. If McCain had lost NH, he probably wouldn’t have a chance in MI. But Romney has an organization, name recognition, money, and a slight home field advantage. This allows him a third bite at the apple.
Nevertheless, the people putting their money on the race have figured in the IA and NH results. And the futures markets give these current odds for winning MI:
McCain 67%
Romney 25%
Huck 20%
Last night McCain was under 50% so the NH win seems to have gotten him a bump. And those odds will shift whenever a new poll comes out. But regardless, it’s a competitive race and Huck should have an appeal to the high unemployment state with pockets of evangelicals.
So can Romney stop the slide with a MI win? Will McCain extend his comeback story to a second state? Will Huck reach beyond his evangelical base and show broader appeal?
6 days left. The clock is ticking.
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Posted in Economic at 8:56 pm by
Congratulations, Ron Paul. You’ve once again managed to come in dead last among candidates who actually campaigned in a primary - except this time, you can’t blame it all on those Jesus freaks in Iowa. This was New Hampshire, which should have been your most fertile territory in all the early primary states. And unfortunately, it looks like “your most fertile territory” still pretty much equates to “Republicans don’t like you or your message.”
At this point, I’d favor action by the Congressional Republican Caucus to extricate you from their ranks. There are lots of reasons for this: the fact that you were, ahem, apparently totally unaware of the racist contents of numerous eponymous newsletters (I swear, that’s believable, really), the fact that you thought that the way that Pol Pot cleaned up the mess after we left Vietnam was great, the fact that you’ve publicly stated that we should not defend South Korea if the North Koreans attacked, the fact that you see Jack Kemp and Bob Dole as terrorists, but not the PLO, and well, we could go on and on. I think there are plenty of reasons listed above that the Republicans in Congress wouldn’t want to be associated with you - and it appears that Republican primary voters are also not comfortable with you being associated with our party. And while nobody wants to kick members out of the Caucus when we’re in the minority, in extreme cases, it’s necessary for people to know that there’s a certain level of scum we won’t be associated with.
Now, maybe it doesn’t have to come to that. Maybe you can just recognize the obvious and declare that the antipathy is mutual and run as the Libertarian Party member that you really are. I mean, it’s not exactly like it would be a new experience for you. And then, when you’re done losing as a Libertarian, this time you could not come back and pretend to be a Republican again. It can all be very simple and painless, see? Look, even the anti-war Republicans have loudly proclaimed that you’re not their guy, so the sooner we can stop pretending that the liberals, conspiracy theorists and other Libertarians you’ve got voting for you have any interest in getting a Republican elected, the better.
We’re saying it with our votes as loud as we can, Ron: get lost. If you need the message repeated in some different format, we’re happy to oblige with that as well.
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Posted in Economic at 8:06 pm by
Two days ago (technical problems delayed this) in Manchester, New Hampshire, I sat down with Steve Forbes, and we talked about his endorsement of Rudy Giuliani, and his thoughts on the economic records of the other candidates. As a supporter of Rudy Giuliani’s he has the most to say about what he likes about Rudy, but it was interesting to me that he ripped pretty hard into Mitt Romney’s record.
The next step of the Presidential race will turn to Michigan and South Carolina. Michigan is a big northern state in, perhaps, the worst economic state in the country, the old rust belt. Voters are going to want to know what can be done for the economy. This is different than taxes, which was an important issue in New Hampshire. In Michigan, the question on voters’ mind will be “who will create jobs?” Mitt Romney’s record is weaker than is generally assumed. The Club for Growth is already up with ads attacking Huckabee, although I suspect that this is more press release. John McCain, as a Senator, has his voting record and new policy proposals to defend and propose. Erick and Neil have more on that.
South Carolina is more complicated. I will be back with more about that.
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07.03.08
Posted in Economic at 10:27 pm by
He says he’ll come back for a stab at any topic of your choice if you contribute $3,000.00 to our fundraising drive.
I myself am willing to give you my unvarnished, undiplomatic take on any candidate on the Republican side (your choice) for $1000.00.
Contribute Here
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Posted in Economic at 9:37 pm by
Rossman (D) has a new poll out on MI voters.*
Huck 23
Romney 22
McCain 18
Rudy 8
Important things to note about the poll: 1) It’s a Democratic polling firm and 2) it was taken before the NH primary. But there is a much better baseline than the old pre-Christmas polls.
*Direct link doesn’t work, the poll is in the upper right hand corner.
Fine Print:
This survey was part of the Rossman Group/MIRS/Denno-Noor Quarterly Survey of the Michigan electorate. Six hundred respondents three hundred Democratic and three hundred Republican Presidential Primary Voters were surveyed between January 6 and January 7, and the participation was stratified based on census data and past voter behavior. A screen was employed to include only those participants who said they intended on voting, either at the polls or by absentee ballot, in the January 15, 2008 Presidential Primary Election. The margin of error for these ballot tests is plus/minus 5.8 percent.
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