06.28.08
Barack Obama’s foreign policy problem
Yesterday, I had a conversation with Jennifer Millerwise Dyck, former spokesman for Vice President Cheney and director of public relations for the Central Intelligence Agency. We talked mostly about national security and the Democrats.
It is looking increasingly clear that Barack Obama is going to be the Democratic nominee. Two things really struck me in my discussion with Mrs. Dyck. The first is that we may have, depending on the GOP candidate, a real contrast on national security experience and perspective. Second, it is likely that the Democrats are going to be torqued up by the disconnect between reality (on the ground in Iraq and responsible policy) and what a Democratic candidate would advocate.
Read on.
Let’s take the first point. Mrs. Dyck pointed out that Obama talks about meeting with Iran, Cuba’s Fidel Castro, North Korea’s Kim Jong-Il, and Venezuela’s Hugo Chavez. When Obama said that he would meet with Iran, he overreacted soon after and discussed the possibility of a limited invasion of Pakistan. Mrs. Dyck said, “It was an amateurish enough error to earn Obama a rather embarrassing schooling from the much more seasoned Sen. Biden. Yet, rather shockingly, he said it again on Saturday.”
There are really two things to note here. The first is that the ideas are silly, and the second is that his over-reaction that projects a lack of leadership. How will that appear in the context of events like yesterday’s incident with Iranian gunships in the Straits of Hormuz. In this dangerous and uncertain world, there will be other opportunities for Obama to demonstrate his inexperience.
Dyck said:
So not only did he exhibit a serious deficiency in judgment the first time round. It seems he still has not learned his lesson. The key here is Obamas judgment and that is something that will be scrutinized in the upcoming months. If his Pakistan policy is any indicator, he has one of two problemshe either lacks the experience to have good judgment or he just lacks judgment in the national security arena.
The second point is that Democratic base expectations will be in conflict with reality, as we have seen in the anger involving troop levels in Iraq. Obama supports much higher levels of troops than the base realizes, but it has fetishized the initial Iraq vote over any current reality. (Note that as the surge succeeds, the Democrats are retreating to the position that it was wrong to go into Iraq at all) As Obama becomes the leader of the Democratic Party, his statements will have to get more responsible, which will anger the base even more.
Right now, the press is in love with Barack Obama. But soon, he is going to be confronted with real questions. He will need answers. He isn’t equipped to give real answers in some cases. In other cases, his answers are irresponsible and deeply unsatisfying to the general election electorate. In other cases, his base will be enraged. This is one set of issues where Obama is quite vulnerable.
Originaly from Source