With polls starting to close… here are the important races to watch tonight. The next story will be for election results.
Tomorrow, November 6th, is election day in some parts of the country. The most important elections from a national standard are:
[UPDATE] Fourth issue added.
1. School Choice in Utah
The state legislature in Utah enacted universal school choice earlier this year providing a voucher to all future students that is larger the poorer the family. The vouchers range from $500 to $3,000. Each student who takes the voucher will save the district over $3,000 to use on the students who choose to stay in the public system. The universal nature of the program scares teachers unions who have poured multiple millions of out of state money to fight parental choice.
Many commentators understand the revolutionary nature of the reforms. Unfortunately, the grass roots support that lead to high public support in the Spring when the legislature passed the reform has fallen under the mass spending by status quo supporters. It is likely that the school choice program will lose at the ballot box in this conservative state. If somehow a surprise victory occurs, it will be a banner day for education and progress.
2. Governors in MS and KY
In MS, Gov. Barbour (R) is expected to win a strong mandate for a second term in a state still dominated by Democrats in the legislature. Gov. Barbour has been a big part of the Republican trend in local and state races and he recently secured endorsements from several major Democrats including several black leaders. Perhaps Gov. Barbour will use some of his second term to woo religious black voters toward the GOP in MS.
In KY, Gov. Fletcher (R) has been attacked by political opponents on some ethics issues and is behind in polls by about 20 points. It seems likely that Ds will pick up this seat while losing the LA Governorship.
3. State Legislatures
VA: Republicans control the state house 57-40 and there are around 6-10 competitive seats mainly in Northern Virginia. Rs will likely hold control of the House but will lose seats. In the state senate, Rs have a 23-17 lead with 6 competitive races (5R, 1D) mostly in Northern Virginia. If NoVa continues it’s trend toward Ds, they could pick up the Senate and get in range of the House. With a D GOV and 2 D SENs after 2008, Virginia is slipping from Republican control.
MS: Even liberal media sites expect Barbour’s coattails to help Rs in the state houses. Rs control the Senate 27-25 (after two party switchers this term) and Ds control the House 74-48. It is unlikely Rs will take the House, but the chamber may change substantially.
LA: Term limits hit this term and many incumbents cannot run again in both houses. The first round of elections are not a big change from four years ago. Democrats control both chambers in a state that has trended Republican recently. Party label has always been less important in LA than other states. Thus, some new Ds may be better than some older (pay to play) Rs. It seems likely that Rs will make minimal gains this cycle and perhaps more next cycle but Ds will hold both chambers when Gov.-elect Jindal brings his ethics reforms to the legislature.
NJ: The state senate is 22D-18R (and the house 50-30) so anything could happen, but there is not much written about the dynamic of this election. Gerrymandering and the lack of competitive races have led to predictions of low turnout.
[UPDATE] 4. Pittsburgh Mayor
Mayor Ravenstahl (D) is over his head with the inherited position. The city hasn’t had a Republican Mayor since the 1926 election. But Mark DeSantis (R) is showing some surprising strength including several unusual endorsements from the major local papers and a very active Democrats for DeSantis group. This could be a major surprise victory for an up and coming young Republican in a heavily Democratic city. Perhaps a future Giuliani/Riordan type.