Comes now Jim Geraghty with a potentially salient point:

The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey found that 66% of Republicans believe that Giuliani at least somewhat likely to win the White House if nominated. Thats down from 72% a month ago.

Sixty-one percent (61%) of Republican voters now say that Fred Thompson is at least somewhat likely to win in nominated. Thats up from 57% last month.

McCain’s at 57 percent, Romney’s at 47 percent. I wonder if the talk of the pro-lifers bolting to a third party made some Republicans fear that Rudy wouldn’t keep the GOP base and win over the pro-choice soccer moms.

As I have argued before, I suspect that a major part of Giuliani’s appeal is his potential ability to win the general election - more specifically, to defeat Hillary, so this is not the sort of news camp Rudy wants to hear. Of course, on the whole, I’m pretty skeptical of these sorts of poll questions and their applicability to the real voting world, so it could mean absolutely nothing. But it does seem as though at least some folks are contemplating the idea that, in Rudy’s case, a grab at the middle might indeed cost some of the right.

Of course, the accuracy of this and other polls depends largely on there being a third party candidate who has decent name ID and isn’t crazy. Looking over the field of possibles, this one probably spells the most trouble for the GOP if Rudy is nominated, especially given his regional strength in the South, an area in which Rudy is expected to underperform Bush, but which he still needs to hold to defeat Clinton. I’m still skeptical that Nunn will run, but if he announces before Iowa, it will be interesting to see whether his announcement changes the dynamic for the GOP field.