Many Russians also point gleefully to the chaotic politics of Ukraine as just what they want to avoid. In fact Ukraine offers them a proud example. It is true that the country’s politics has been messy since the “orange revolution” of late 2004 propelled Viktor Yushchenko into the presidency, ahead of Russia’s preferred candidate, Viktor Yanukovich; that Ukraine’s wealthy business clans have too much political influence; and that corruption is entrenched (as it is in Russia).
Yet the election on September 30th was still a thoroughly democratic and unpredictable affair, more honestly conducted than any before it. After some hard bargaining, it seems likely to produce a new orange coalition government (see article). There is no longer serious talk of the country breaking apart: all political parties want to move closer to Europe. Unlike Russia, Ukraine now has independent media, a real opposition and the prospect of a genuine presidential contest in 2009. It also has a fast-growing economy that is likely to get into the World Trade Organisation before Russia does.
What can the West do to promote the democratic cause in the post-Soviet space? The answer in Russia is: not much. Mr Putin is sensitive to outside criticism, but not enough to make him more democratic. Western economic leverage over Russia is limited. Indeed, the bigger risk is that the Russians’ stranglehold on gas supplies to Europe is putting more leverage into their hands. Tellingly, the Russian energy giant, Gazprom, this week again threatened to cut supplies to Ukraine.
But the West could do more to foster and encourage fledgling democracies in places such as Ukraine and Georgia, through better trade access, more favourable visa arrangements and stronger support in the face of Russian bullying. The European Union would also do these countries a huge favour if it were willing to hold out the prospect, however distant, of their becoming members. This has worked wonders in central and eastern Europe, and in the Baltics–there is no reason why it should not do so in other bits of the former Soviet Union. Above all, the successful establishment of working democracy in countries like Ukraine offers the best hope of one day luring Russia down the same road.
It is high time for a comprehensive review and overhaul of America’s policy concerning Russia. In fact, it is long past high time for such an overhaul. How much more do things in Russia need to deteriorate before a better and more successful policy is implemented?