People have a lot of questionable theories about what wins Presidential general elections. I, however, have a foolproof and 100% accurate theory for what wins general elections: I call it the BBQ factor. Every Presidential election since Carter/Ford, the candidate who has won the general election is the one average people would rather have over for a Saturday afternoon BBQ. Examine every race for yourself and see if it’s not absolutely true. Here’s the way I look at it; Bob Dole and Walter Mondale both got around 40% of the vote, so there’s basically 80% of the country that’s spoken for one way or another. The remaining 20% pays very marginal attention to the candidates, the issues they stand for, or their campaign promises. Basically, they know that they’ll have to see this person on TV for the next four years, so they evaluate things based on who they’d rather have into their home, via the TV screen. That’s not how it would work in an ideal world, but I submit that it’s how it works in the real world.

Now, here’s the good news for us: Hillary Clinton has one of the lowest BBQ factors of any presumptive nominee since Richard Nixon. I think it’s entirely possible for someone with a BBQ factor that low to win their party’s nomination very handily (see Dole, Robert, and Mondale, Walter), and even to do well in early head-to-head polling, but then get ultimately crushed in the general when the bright lights of television truly fall on them. And I think that’s what’ll happen with Hillary Clinton.

You know who scares me? Barack Obama scares me. Barack Obama’s like that guy at your work who’s a flaming liberal, but manages not to be an annoying twit about it. In fact, he’s one of the more personable guys that you know, and although when he holds forth on politics, you think his opinions are crazy, you still enjoy being around him generally. He’s like the Alejandro Pena out there: I think he gets our hitters out pretty easily, even if he does maybe have some wildness problems and nobody’s really sure how he’ll perform under intense pressure. He’s beatable, but scary. Fortunately for us, the other side has got old Charlie Liebrandt out there. And they’re maybe thinking, a la Bobby Cox, that what they need is someone more reliable, someone with a little more staying power for the long haul. And I think they’re gonna send their Charlie Liebrandt out there instead, and she is ripe for the picking - anyone who starts a campaign with 44% unfavorables among the general population shouldn’t scare anybody.

Now, here’s the catch: Hillary Clinton is a woman. And I frankly don’t know how this affects the BBQ factor. I think maybe the public might think it’s “cool” to look at a female President for the next four years. Shake things up a bit, you know. And Hillary Clinton has about a bazillion dollars to spend on consultants to help her avoid the shrewish, sometimes screeching behavior that makes her unlikeable to people. So while she’s eminently beatable, we need to make sure to send the right person up to bat. Someone who can get under her skin, and bring out the Hillary we all know and dislike. Someone capable of needling her without making people feel sorry for her.

I watched all of that debate the other day, and I feel great about either Fred or Rudy’s ability to beat Hillary Clinton for that reason. I loathe saying this, because it will inevitably lead to dozens of angry comments from Mittsters, but I don’t think that Mitt has what it takes. Mitt went on the attack twice - once against Rudy and once against Fred. His “joke” about Fred got smashed back in his face, and he looked awkward and out of his depth arguing about the unconstitutional line-item veto with Rudy. Even Dean Barnett, a committed Romney partisan, was forced to concede that Romney looks a lot better “holding forth” on issues than he does going after his opponents. By contrast, I don’t think anyone questions Rudy’s skills as a brawler, and Fred’s “Christopher” moment showed that he has the ability to do exactly the sort of thing necessary to make the real Hillary come out. I can easily see a moment in a Hillary/Fred debate in which Hillary totally loses her cool with him. And one of those moments is all it takes.

The point, though, is that Hillary Clinton is not inevitable. Hillary Clinton is one of the more beatable Presidential candidates the Democrats have fielded in the last two generations. All we need in order to beat her is our Kirby Puckett - a candidate who can exploit her weakness - her own abrasive personality - with the right degree of skill. And we have more than one such candidate.